Update 17th July
Quick market update:
NBP gas was higher yesterday on the back of news that Freeport LNG remains shut.
The move at the NBP has pushed Green Gas and PPA levels higher.
Freeport has been shut for over a week after Hurricane Beryl damaged it. Our LNG data shows that 20 cargoes left US terminals last week. Six fewer than the previous week (reflecting Freeport’s loss).
PPA and Green Gas pricing is up
- PPA and Green Gas pricing are up, and Green Gas pricing was up around 3% at the front end in early trading this morning.
- Over the last 24 hours, relative strength has returned to European power and gas markets due to Eastern cooling demand and minor supply issues.
Elsewhere, we have fielded questions about the likely impact of a Republican win in the US elections and what that might mean for UK/European energy markets. Whilst we are not political analysts, a Trump administration would be broadly positive for oil companies and LNG exporters. However, there is undoubtedly a potential risk of uncertainty and volatility over the coming months.
Specifically, regarding US LNG, we have already seen Judge James Cain, an “appointee” of Donald Trump, working to block Biden’s “pause on LNG export permits”. He has argued that a LNG export block would be “completely without reason or logic”.
The takeaway for our European markets is that if a Republican wins, we expect continued or increased US LNG supply to our terminals.
- In other LNG news, we expect to see the phased restart of the US Freeport facility after hurricane damage.
- Freeport is one of the most extensive US LNG facilities critical to global supply.
Please let us know if you have any questions or want to discuss your PPA fixing strategy.
Thanks
Jamie Banks
PPA Manager at New Stream
Jamie
